The rise and fall of empires by John Bagot is an essay I read recently. It is a history book about patterns that can be found in the lifetime of known empires.

I got the book because I was wondering how great powers fall and what stage the United States is at. The essay scratched the itch I had, and sated my curiosity.

The first fascinating piece of information I got from it was how many great powers last for around 250 years. My brain tells me to dig deeper, but I believe that will be unwise.

John (the author) goes on to explain how most great powers start by a violent outburst and end with a decline of moral standards, pessimism, frivolity and cynicism.

According to John, the stages of the rise and fall seem to be:

  1. The age of pioneers (outburst)
  2. The age of conquest
  3. The age of commerce
  4. The age of affluence
  5. The age of intellect
  6. The age of decadence

A part that stood out to me was where he talked about the correlation between the increased participation of women in public and the fall of an empire:

An increase in the influence of women in public life has often been associated with national decline. The later Romans complained that, although Rome ruled the world, women ruled Rome. In the tenth century, a similar tendency was observable in the Arab Empire, the women demanding admission to the professions hitherto monopolised by men. ‘What,’ wrote the contemporary historian, Ibn Bessam, ‘have the professions of clerk, tax-collector or preacher to do with women? These occupations have always been limited to men alone.’ Many women practised law, while others obtained posts as university professors. There was an agitation for the appointment of female judges, which, however, does not appear to have succeeded.

…

When I first read these contemporary descriptions of tenth-century Baghdad, I could scarcely believe my eyes. I told myself that this must be a joke! The descriptions might have been taken out of The Times today. The resemblance of all the details was especially breathtaking—the break-up of the empire, the abandonment of sexual morality, the ‘pop’ singers with their guitars, the entry of women into the professions, the five-day week. I would not venture to attempt an explanation! There are so many mysteries about human life which are far beyond our comprehension.

The reason this part stood out was because I was curious about how the transgender movement got as much support as it is getting. My curiosity took me to other successful movements that are disruptive, and I eventually started wondering about the rise and fall of great powers.

After reading the whole essay, I was left wondering about the end of present day USA. I am kind of fascinated and a little terrified with how USA will fall. With all the weapons of mass destruction around, I hope it will just decline or transform. I wonder what will cause its downfall, what will disappear along with it and what the history book will say about this age.